十大正规网赌娱乐网址缺乏DNMR.  We conclude that DNMR has significantly misrepresented the state of its customer relationships, 产品开发, 准备规模, 和TAM为相位.  无论是DNMR收购Novomer的资金,还是它打算用于产能扩张的资金,都让十大正规网堵平台觉得是万福玛利亚——把钱花在希望上,而不是现实上.

    • Like numerous other SPACs, DNMR has greatly misrepresented the state of its business.  DNMR makes highly misleading claims, such as having over $200 million of take or pay agreements just waiting for DNMR to add capacity; that DNMR can sell all the PHA it makes today; and that its PHA TAM is 500 billion pounds.
    • What DNMR can produce seems to have limited demand, 这与首席执行官斯蒂芬·克罗克雷(Stephen Croskrey)的声明形成了鲜明对比。DNMR声称,DNMR可以出售其生产的所有PHA,该公司声称,“由于压倒性的客户需求,[2022E]肯塔基州的产能已全部售罄”。. 而不是, DNMR seems unable to make PHA for the products for which there seems to be a significant potential market.  DNMR has likely not produced PHA for products sold to end users, other than straws and possibly plastic shopping bags.
    • 十大正规网堵平台的结论是,DNMR现有产品的需求似乎相当疲软,支持这一结论的是,DNMR在今年第一季度和第二季度的PHA产量明显下降(但未引起注意).  Using company favorable assumptions, we estimate that DNMR has been operating at only approximately 28% of capacity, 而不是预期的50%.   Less company favorable, but still reasonable, assumptions yield estimates as low as 18% of capacity.  此外, DNMR的缓慢周转库存(~3x)始终显示出在制品的数量为零到最小,同时原材料和成品都有材料余额, which we think shows that there is not much demand for what DNMR is capable of producing.  这种担忧的一个子集是,由于生产问题,DNMR可能会生产大量不可销售的产品.
    • The PHA products for which there could be significant demand, such as potato chip bags and candy wrappers, 无论DNMR是否增加产能,都远远超出了其在不久的将来实现规模化经济生产的技术能力.  Management promotionally brags that DNMR has achieved “the Holy Grail” of plastics.  然而,, DNMR似乎还没有解决将PHA商业化所需的众多技术难题.  人们不禁要问,为什么这么多知名公司在这个所谓的“圣杯”在2020年SPAC大狂欢期间上市之前,都不愿收购它.
    • DNMR has greatly misled 投资者 about its 合作伙伴hips.  当DNMR上市时,Mr. Croskrey said on CNBC that the company was “sitting on over $200 million of take or pay offtake agreements, and we had customers like PepsiCo, 雀巢, 巴卡第, 你知道, expecting us to be able to grow our capacity, so we had to find a way to find a lot of cash fast.“十大正规网堵平台相信,DNMR希望为这些合作伙伴生产的产品正处于非常早期的开发阶段, and that production capacity was not even close to being an issue for these products.  据报道,如果DNMR无法开发出满足客户需求的产品,这些所谓的“接受或支付”协议将对客户产生不利影响.  此外, we understand that the PepsiCo take or pay was for pilot plant scale, and that DNMR likely has not finalized a commercial-scale agreement with PepsiCo.  We also understand that Mars Wrigley will likely not be using in scale a DNMR plastics wrapper before 2025 – if ever; and, that PepsiCo is probably many years away (if ever) from any sizable PHA compound purchases from DNMR.
    • We consider DNMR amateurish when it comes to production.  DNMR不断变化的产能计划给十大正规网堵平台的印象是,它在孤注一掷——建立昂贵的产能,制造DNMR甚至还没有证明它可以经济生产的产品.  We count four iterations of DNMR’s expansion plans in eight months since it went public.  这包括DNMR针对Novomer的两个版本的生产计划(对此十大正规网堵平台质疑DNMR的尽职调查).  The latest iteration of DNMR’s plan appears to be greatly misleading, purportedly increasing planned capacity from the previous 315 million pounds per year to 390 million PPY, 所有的花费都更少!  Except DNMR seems to be comparing apples to oranges – under the new plan, its nameplate capacity only adds up to 250 million PPY.  In other words, the new plan is less capacity for less money.
    • DNMR十大正规网堵平台产能的误导性陈述不仅仅是SPAC的狂欢行为——它甚至在2015年就对产能进行了错误的陈述.  在那个时候, DNMR produced a video that prominently features its current CTO and COO, while the then-CEO made the claim that the Bainbridge, Georgia plant had a PHA nameplate capacity of 60 million PPY. DNMR now refers to Bainbridge as a “PHA demonstration plant.”
    • DNMR seems to be glossing over the difficulties of bringing any new plant up to “commercial scale” (i.e.,容量的75%).  一位生物塑料生产的资深人士表示,没有商业规模生产经验的团队可能需要5到7年的时间,才能将PLA生产设施实现商业规模.  他认为,扩大PHA的生产规模要比扩大PLA的生产困难得多:增加的困难可能会推迟时间.  扩大PHA生产规模的挑战显然是Archer-Daniels-Midland和Metobolix在投资了3亿多美元的生产设施后,最终以1000万美元出售PHA业务的原因之一.
    • Novomer的收购并不能缓解十大正规网堵平台对DNMR缺乏经验和随意的生产方式的担忧.  而, 此次收购表明,DNMR担心其发酵技术不会像之前认为的那样规模化或发挥作用.  Despite Novomer having been in operation for many years, its pilot plant reportedly produces only a few pounds per day.  Novomer’s production facility is reportedly a small demonstration unit, and it has apparently not tested its production processes for a commercial-scale plant.  We are under the impression that Novomer was on life support when DNMR acquired it.
    • 对Novomer的收购,与其说是一次精心构思的战略行动,不如说是一场敷衍的万福玛利亚式的宣传.   It is effectively a bet on a technology that has not been proven at scale.  Novomer would make up 30% of product formulations at best, which seems to us to be just another change-up in a constantly shifting production plan.  更麻烦的, Novomer appears to have been hollowed out of staff post-acquisition, while foundational patents in the portfolio have expired.  A full-scale production facility likely needs to be located near a petroleum source, which would belie DNMR’s green narrative.  事实上, renewable ethylene oxide and carbon monoxide feedstocks appear to be too scarce and expensive, and DNMR appears to have excluded them from the latest plan.
  • Putting these company-specific issues aside, 十大正规网堵平台认为,DNMR声称“通过DNMR可以消除5000亿磅塑料垃圾”是非常具有误导性的. Bullish 投资者 have taken this to mean that DNMR’s TAM is $1 trillion, which we find delusional.  A much more realistic TAM for PHA-based packaging seems to be $4 billion to $5 billion.  回收塑料,从塑料中的碳氢化合物中回收储存的能量,比pha更接近于“圣杯”.  Bioplastics cause negative externalities, such as increasing consumer littering and making recycling of blended plastics difficult.  而不是, bioplastics seem best suited for targeted solutions, 这很有可能, far 短 of the 500 billion tons of plastic DNMR claims it can replace.


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